US govt owns >=5% equity in OpenAI, Anthropic, Alphabet or Meta or xAI by 2026?
AIOne-OffUS PoliticsTech3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 92.9%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleAug 25, 25, 9:10 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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KalshiRules
Inspired by: https://caithrin.substack.com/p/10-ownership-of-intel-should-worry
- I'm not entirely sure how to resolve complex mechanisms of ownership - I wouldn't count eg: the govt as an LP to a fund owning this share.
- Ask a question, or suggest a mechanism if you're unsure of resolution.
- This would definitely resolve YES if an Intel-style equity-for-subsidy deal happens leading to the federal govt owning >5%.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for US govt owns >=5% equity in OpenAI, Anthropic, Alphabet or Meta or xAI by 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 93% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does US govt owns >=5% equity in OpenAI, Anthropic, Alphabet or Meta or xAI by 2026? resolve?
- US govt owns >=5% equity in OpenAI, Anthropic, Alphabet or Meta or xAI by 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is US govt owns >=5% equity in OpenAI, Anthropic, Alphabet or Meta or xAI by 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Inspired by: https://caithrin.substack.com/p/10-ownership-of-intel-should-worry