UK Autumn Budget 2026: will the OBR report headroom of £10bn or more against the stability rule?
One-OffMacro & EconomyPolitics1hManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 56.7%
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4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Sep 22, 26, 2:33 PM UTCOct 28, 26, 12:00 PM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if the OBR's October 2026 Economic and fiscal outlook states a margin of £10.0 billion or more against the current budget (stability) rule in the rule's target year, after Budget measures, as printed in the outlook's executive summary.
- If it reports margins for more than one year, the target year named in the fiscal mandate governs.
- Resolution Foundation estimated about £5bn before any Budget measures on 7 September 2026.
- This market closes at 12:00 UTC on Budget day, before the speech and before the OBR publishes its forecast.
- The creator may trade in this market.
- Resolution follows the sources named above.
