UK Autumn Budget 2026: will the fuel duty rise due on 1 January 2027 be cancelled or delayed?
One-OffBusiness & CorporateManifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (93.5%)
Resolved: Oct 28, 2026, 2:04 PM
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Data as of Oct 28, 2026, 8:27 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
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PolymarketRules
Fuel duty on petrol and diesel is 52.95p a litre until 31 December 2026.
- Under current law it rises to 55.95p on 1 January 2027 and 57.95p on 1 March 2027, and HMRC said on 22 May 2026 that the government 'will confirm final rates at Budget 2026'.
- YES if the Budget sets a main petrol and diesel rate below 55.95p a litre for 1 January 2027, whether by extending the 5p cut, cancelling the rise or delaying it by any length of time.
- NO if 55.95p or more applies on 1 January 2027, including when the Budget says nothing about the January rate.
- Changes only to red diesel or other rebated rates do not count.
- The separate fuel duty market resolves on the 2027-28 column of the policy decisions table, so a cut that ends by 31 March 2027 can resolve this market YES and that one NO.
