UK Autumn Budget 2026: will pensioners with increments or other income get the State Pension tax protection?
One-OffBusiness & CorporateManifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (37%)
Resolved: Oct 28, 2026, 2:05 PM
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Budget 2025 said pensioners whose sole income is the basic or new State Pension without any increments would not have to pay small amounts of income tax via Simple Assessment from 2027-28.
- Pensions minister Torsten Bell said on 15 Sep 2026 that the Chancellor would set out at the Budget how this will be delivered.
- YES if the Budget speech or documents state that the protection, however it is delivered (a relief, allowance, disregard, or HMRC not assessing or collecting the tax), also covers people outside that group: for example people whose State Pension includes increments or additional State Pension, or people with some private pension, earnings or savings income.
- Protection means not having to pay the tax, not a different way of collecting it.
- If the definition of who is covered is unclear on this point, the most detailed definition published on Budget day (for example in a tax information and impact note) governs; if that is still unclear, resolves NO.
- Restating the commitment in general terms, such as 'pensioners whose incomes only just exceed the Personal Allowance' or 'low-income pensioners', does not by itself show that people outside that group are covered.