Current community forecast
Tesla 65.5%
Forecasters
23
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleApr 26, 25, 6:27 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 6:38 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will any city in the UK have a self-driving taxi service by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be self driving taxis in London, UK by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the year of the self-driving car happen before the year of the Linux desktop
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketGemini 4.0 released by which date?
PolymarketRules
Tesla is planning to release self-driving taxis in June.
- Waymo has been scaling their self-driving taxi service for a while.
- This market is to predict, between Waymo and Tesla, which company will first be responsible for a vehicle that is designed to be fully autonomous (i.e. operated with no driver behind the wheel, if there even is a wheel) and is available for public use causing a major accident.
- If the vehicle has a wheel, it must be operating without user input at the time of the crash.
- A major accident must
- Be reported on in at least two major news outlets, AND
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Tesla or Waymo First Serious Self-Driving Taxi Crash??
- Manifold Markets prices Tesla at 66% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Tesla or Waymo First Serious Self-Driving Taxi Crash? resolve?
- Tesla or Waymo First Serious Self-Driving Taxi Crash? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Tesla or Waymo First Serious Self-Driving Taxi Crash? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Tesla is planning to release self-driving taxis in June.