Current community forecast
Tesla 65.5%
Forecasters
23
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleApr 26, 25, 6:27 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 6:38 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Tesla is planning to release self-driving taxis in June.
- Waymo has been scaling their self-driving taxi service for a while.
- This market is to predict, between Waymo and Tesla, which company will first be responsible for a vehicle that is designed to be fully autonomous (i.e. operated with no driver behind the wheel, if there even is a wheel) and is available for public use causing a major accident.
- If the vehicle has a wheel, it must be operating without user input at the time of the crash.
- A major accident must
- Be reported on in at least two major news outlets, AND