Data quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 5:41 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
No 58.2%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleSep 2, 26, 8:00 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a fully autonomous military drone cost less than $1000 by 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Level 5 (fully autonomous) cars be commercially available on any Australian roads by 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRules
NOTE: This market includes any autonomous ride in a Tesla, not just the robotaxi service!
- Waymo claims 700k fully autonomous rides in 2023, which was more than ~0 Tesla rides that were fully autonomous in 2023.
- To define fully autonomous, I'll use the following definition:
- No human operates any direct controls inside the vehicle like the steering wheel or pedals
- No human in the car actively monitors the driving being ready to intervene
- Must be of a non-trivial distance (e.g. crossing the parking lot does not count)