Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 69%
Forecasters
25
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleMay 28, 26, 12:42 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) and Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) legally complete a corporate merger, acquisition, or combine into a single corporate structure under a unified parent company on or before December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM UTC.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
- Completed/Closed Transaction Required: A mere announcement of an agreement is not sufficient; the transaction must be legally completed (closed).
- Unified Parent/Holding Structure: If both companies are folded into a newly created holding company where they operate as subsidiaries under the same corporate umbrella, this will resolve the market to YES.
- Exclusions: Joint ventures (such as the "Terafab" Austin semiconductor facility), commercial supply agreements, or technology sharing partnerships do not qualify as a merger for the purpose of this market.
