Smoking less deadly: will the life expectancy penalty for smokers decrease by 2030?
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Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 6:50 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 72.4%
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27
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 3 hours ago
StaleSep 1, 24, 5:33 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 10:59 PM UTC
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KalshiRules
This 2004 study shows that the life expectancy gap between smokers and non-smokers has risen in recent decades:
- https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC437139/
- The health of the general population has increased faster than that of smokers.
- However this increase in health has slowed in recent years.
- At the same time there are advances in lung cancer treatment and other diseases related to smoking.
- This resolves YES if there is conclusive evidence that the gap in life expectancy is decreasing again.
