Will US life expectancy recover from its 2020-2021 "Covid" drop to exceed its 2019 level by 2029?
Health & MedicineOne-Off3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 80.9%
Forecasters
47
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleOct 24, 22, 3:48 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 2:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
This question resolves to "YES" if the CDC-published life expectancy at birth for 2029 exceeds that of 2019, "NO" if it does not (or is equal to within 0.1 years).
- If the CDC no longer publishes life expectancy figures in 2030, resolution will be based on the most similar comparable US government figures for which data is available from 2019 to 2029.
- This market resolves "N/A" if whole-population life expectancy figures which compare 2019 and 2029 to within 0.1 years are not available in 2030.
- The CDC has recently published figures showing that life expectancy at birth declined by 1.8 years in 2020 and 0.9 years in 2021, from 78.8 years in 2019 to 76.1 years in 2021: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/nchs_press_releases/2022/20220831.htm
- Oct 25, 1:03pm: Will US life expectancy recover from Covid by 2030? → Will US life expectancy recover from its 2020-2021 "Covid" drop to exceed its 2019 level by 2029?
