Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 58%
Yes 58%Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleOct 22, 25, 9:06 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Resolves YES if there is strong evidence that a new axis of AI scaling has emerged involving memory before January 1st 2029.
- This includes, but is not limited to, an algorithm that yields continued improvements on benchmarks as a function of inference-time memory (measured in e.g. gigabytes of RAM) across multiple orders of magnitude.
- This is distinct from the model weights that are memory invariant between training and inference.
- There must be evidence of a regime where this scaling occurs independent to the pretraining and inference-time compute scaling axes in order for this question to resolve YES.