PMF or Die (AI Forecasting Edition)

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for PMF or Die (AI Forecasting Edition)?

Manifold Markets prices No at 87.3% as of October 28, 2026.

When does PMF or Die (AI Forecasting Edition) resolve?

PMF or Die (AI Forecasting Edition) is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2027.

How is PMF or Die (AI Forecasting Edition) settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: I have set the personal goal of creating a forecasting bot by January 1st 2027 which can compete with at least 2 of the top 5 best forecasting bots on Metaculus.

Use this market in code or an AI agent

Free JSON for this market, no API key needed:

AI agents: call pm_data_event on the CoinRithm MCP server:

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by which date?

• December 31,+1.5pt95%
• December 15,+1.5pt93%
• November 30,-1.5pt88%

+15 more outcomes

Total Vol

$6M

24h Vol

$118.5K

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T+3.0pt31.4%
• $2.0–$2.25T-0.9pt22.9%
• $1.5–$1.75T-0.3pt16.2%

+7 more outcomes

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude+0.3pt58.8%
• Gemini-0.7pt30.1%
• ChatGPT+1.0pt

POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

• Google+8.1pt98%
• Anthropic-8.1pt2%
• Alibaba-0.1pt0%

+18 more outcomes

KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Apr 1, 202796.5%
• Before Mar 1, 202795%
• Before Jan 1, 202793.5%

POLYMARKET

What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?

• <$1T-7.7pt21.8%
• $1.25T–$1.5T+0.8pt20.8%
• $1.5T–$1.75T+2.7pt20.8%

+5 more outcomes

• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
• How much will Anthropic raise in its IPO?
• Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
• Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
• Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
• Which bank will lead Anthropic's IPO?
• GPT Astra 6.1+ released by which date?
• OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
• Best AI in Oct 2026?
• Moonshot AI share of spend on Oct 28, 2026 (Vercel)