Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 76.4%
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17
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 2 hours ago
StaleMay 30, 26, 7:51 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Will OpenAI report a model has achieved >=20% on OpenAI-proof QA before 2027?
- Internal-only models count.
- If OAI ceases to report or regularly test frontier models on this benchmark before achieving >=20%, I will resolve N/A. If the benchmark is substantially changed in a way that appears to change its difficulty substantially--e.g. to track performance on stronger models--I will N/A. If the benchmark is changed in a way to only correct label or statement errors (say <33% of them), that's ok and I will resolve normally.
- c.f. https://deploymentsafety.openai.com/gpt-5-5/internal-research-debugging-evaluation
- I may trade on this market.
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