Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (80.4%)
Resolved: Sep 29, 2026, 4:39 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 30, 2026, 5:23 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes80.4%
No19.59999999999999%
YesWon
NoLost
Rules
Some or all images on openAI will be invisibly watermarked.
- It should be from the state of the art image producing system not video
- It will not be trivial to remove (by resizing/changing format), even if I can download the image in png or jpg or whatever.
- This situation continues for at least 3 months.
- The market can resolve YES early if we get 3 months with an unbreakable watermark.
- Update 2026-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If OpenAI implements a watermark before the market close deadline and it remains non-removable, it will count toward YES resolution — even if the full 3-month period extends beyond the market close date.
