Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastScores at least 40% on Terminal Bench Science 98.9%+41.6ptLeader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
25
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+48.9 pts
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Sep 3, 26, 1:54 AMOct 2, 26, 10:59 PM
Trends
Rules
All benchmarks (except for Artificial Analysis and Frontier Math Open Problems) will resolve according to what OpenAI claims Astra scores on them.
- In Lieu of that, I will look to third-party benchmarking, prioritizing the benchmark's official leaderboard (like https://www.terminal-bench-science.ai/ for terminal bench science)
- [link preview]
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for OpenAI Astra Prop Bets?
- Manifold Markets prices Scores at least 40% on Terminal Bench Science at 99% as of September 4, 2026.
- When does OpenAI Astra Prop Bets resolve?
- OpenAI Astra Prop Bets is scheduled to resolve on October 2, 2026.
- How is OpenAI Astra Prop Bets settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: All benchmarks (except for Artificial Analysis and Frontier Math Open Problems) will resolve according to what OpenAI claims Astra scores on them.
