Current community forecast
Yes 68.3%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 35 minutes ago
Nov 23, 25, 4:52 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that, before January 1st 2028, at least one publicly released open‑weights model that can run on a single consumer GPU has capabilities comparable to Google’s Nano Banana Pro (Gemini 3 Pro Image), in the sense that it meets all of the base conditions and at least 3 of the 5 capability criteria below (with at least one of criteria D or E satisfied).
- Otherwise this market resolves NO.
- Base conditions (all must be true for the candidate model)
- For this market, a candidate model is any concrete model (including its required VAE / text encoder / diffusion backbone / LoRAs) that satisfies all of:
- Open weights
- The full weights needed for inference are publicly downloadable (behind at most a simple login and click‑through license), without per‑applicant approval or NDAs.
