Open ia fait faillite avant la fin de l’année ?
RegulationOne-OffAITechCorporate ActionsBusiness & Corporate3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 89.7%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleMar 27, 26, 3:48 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by September 30?
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if OpenAI files for bankruptcy or enters formal insolvency proceedings before December 31, 2026.
- Resolution will be determined by official court filings, SEC documents, or verified announcements from OpenAI's leadership.
- The market resolves NO if OpenAI remains solvent and operational through year-end 2026.
- OpenAI is projected to make a $14 billion loss in 2026, primarily driven by infrastructure expansion, model training, research hiring, and compute costs.
- While OpenAI reportedly generates up to $13 billion in revenue annually from ChatGPT and LLM access fees, the firm spends up to $1.4 billion on computing.
Open markets
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+1.0pt84.2%
- Yes-1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $14.3M
- 24h Vol
- $157.6K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-1.0pt86%
- November 30,-1.5pt84%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Oct 1, 2027-4.0pt45%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-7.0pt40%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-29.0pt24%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027+4.0pt54%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Mar 1, 202795%
- Before Feb 1, 202793%
- Before Apr 1, 202792%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.6M
- 24h Vol
- $16.5K
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt20%
- $1.75T–$2.0T+0.5pt19.1%
- $1.5T–$1.75T+0.1pt18.1%
+5 more outcomes
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- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
- Will Delaware raise its corporate franchise tax?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by September 30?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Open ia fait faillite avant la fin de l’année ??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 90% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Open ia fait faillite avant la fin de l’année ? resolve?
- Open ia fait faillite avant la fin de l’année ? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Open ia fait faillite avant la fin de l’année ? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria