Open ia fait faillite avant la fin de l’année ?
RegulationOne-OffAITechCorporate ActionsBusiness & Corporate2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 31, 2026, 5:25 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 89.7%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated yesterday
StaleMar 27, 26, 3:48 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if OpenAI files for bankruptcy or enters formal insolvency proceedings before December 31, 2026.
- Resolution will be determined by official court filings, SEC documents, or verified announcements from OpenAI's leadership.
- The market resolves NO if OpenAI remains solvent and operational through year-end 2026.
- OpenAI is projected to make a $14 billion loss in 2026, primarily driven by infrastructure expansion, model training, research hiring, and compute costs.
- While OpenAI reportedly generates up to $13 billion in revenue annually from ChatGPT and LLM access fees, the firm spends up to $1.4 billion on computing.
