Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 5 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 5 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 91.8% as of October 28, 2026.

When does Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 5 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use? resolve?

Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 5 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2050.

How is Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 5 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: "Entry level" is deliberately fuzzy: in 2022 terms this would look like an AI (or AIs) that is assigned an issue, checks out code, makes edits, and submits a PR (that is accepted).

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KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Gemini+16.5pt46.3%
• Claude-14.8pt45.2%
• ChatGPT-1.2pt6%

+5 more outcomes

Total Vol

$15.9M

24h Vol

$191.5K

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by which date?

• December 31,+1.3pt95%
• December 15,+1.5pt93%
• November 30,-2.0pt87%

+15 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

• Google+15.0pt50%
• Anthropic-14.0pt42%
• OpenAI-0.1pt6%

+12 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T+1.5pt29.8%
• $2.0–$2.25T-0.1pt22.1%
• $1.5–$1.75T-1.4pt16.4%

+7 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?

• <$1T-8.9pt21%
• $1.25T–$1.5T+1.8pt19%
• $1.5T–$1.75T+0.8pt18%

+5 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

• Google+1.6pt98%
• Anthropic-1.4pt2%
• Alibaba-0.1pt0%

+18 more outcomes

• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
• How much will Anthropic raise in its IPO?
• GPT Astra 6.1+ released by which date?
• Which bank will lead Anthropic's IPO?
• Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
• When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
• Gemini Carbon released by which date?
• Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
• Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
• Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Oct 28, 2026