Current community forecast
2026 99.5%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
21
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleJan 7, 24, 11:39 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
99.5%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0%
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will NASA's Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope launch in 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope be renamed before the end of Trump's second term?
Manifold MarketsWill Euclid space telescope lower my credence in the standard model of cosmology?
Manifold MarketsWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiRules
The Roman Space Telescope is NASA's next flagship telescope, following JWST and Hubble before it.
- The current launch date is May 2027.
- Resolves to the year in which the Telescope is successfully launched.
- I may add more years later if there are delays.
- Adapted from
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/JacobShapiro/will-nasas-nancy-grace-roman-space)
Open markets
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-1.8pt9%
- Google2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.9K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Total Vol
- $53.1K
- 24h Vol
- $53.1K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-16.0pt19%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt67%
- June 30, 2027-0.5pt53%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for In what year will NASA's Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope launch??
- Manifold Markets prices 2026 at 100% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does In what year will NASA's Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope launch? resolve?
- In what year will NASA's Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope launch? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2028.
- How is In what year will NASA's Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope launch? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The Roman Space Telescope is NASA's next flagship telescope, following JWST and Hubble before it.