In what year will China's nominal GDP first exceed that of the United States?
InflationOne-OffEconomyForeign ExchangeChina
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecast2035-2039 22.3%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
3
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleJun 9, 25, 12:19 AM UTCDec 31, 00, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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China already became the world's largest economy on a purchasing-power-parity (PPP) basis in 2016, according to both the World Bank and IMF estimates, even though the United States still leads when measured at market exchange rates.
- As of 2024, China's nominal GDP is about 73 % of the U.S. level ($18.3 tn vs $25.0 tn in 2022 IMF data) and the gap has been narrowing roughly 1-2 percentage points per year.
- Whether-and when-China overtakes the U.S. in nominal terms hinges on factors such as:
- real growth differentials,
- inflation and deflation trends,
- RMB-USD exchange-rate movements, and
