In what year will AI achieve a score of 85% or higher on the SimpleBench leaderboard?
12.2 pts (24h)AIOne-Off6yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast2026 92.1%+12.2ptLeader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
39
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+12.2 pts
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Jul 6, 25, 10:34 AMJan 1, 33, 11:59 PM
Trends
Rules
SimpleBench is a 200‑item multiple‑choice test designed to probe everyday human reasoning that still eludes frontier LLMs, including spatio‑temporal reasoning, social intelligence and linguistic “trick” questions.
- Unlike most other benchmarks, humans still outperform AI on the SimpleBench.
- State of play:
- • Human reference accuracy: 83.7 %
- • 2025 AI accuracy (Gemini 2.5 Pro): 62.4 %
- Why this milestone matters
Open markets
AI
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- October 31+0.1pt99%
- September 30-0.7pt98%
- September 25-0.3pt98%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.2M
- 24h Vol
- $539.3K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-3.2pt58.6%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt24%
- Grok+1.5pt7.7%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.1M
POLYMARKETGPT-6 released by which date?
- October 31,+9.2pt100%
- November 30,+6.8pt100%
- December 31,+5.5pt100%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETOpenAI's Astra released on?
- September 4+34.9pt44%
- September 24+21.4pt23%
- September 17+21.1pt22%
+27 more outcomes
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude-10.0pt76.5%
- ChatGPT+6.0pt16.7%
- Gemini+2.0pt2.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $173.4K
KALSHIWhen will OpenAI release GPT-6?
- Before Sep 16, 2026+14.0pt99%
- Before Oct 1, 2026+9.0pt99%
- Before Nov 1, 2026+6.0pt99%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703K
- Which week will OpenAI release Astra?
- When will OpenAI release Astra?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- AI capability growth this year?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- When will any company achieve AGI?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for In what year will AI achieve a score of 85% or higher on the SimpleBench leaderboard??
- Manifold Markets prices 2026 at 92% as of September 4, 2026.
- When does In what year will AI achieve a score of 85% or higher on the SimpleBench leaderboard? resolve?
- In what year will AI achieve a score of 85% or higher on the SimpleBench leaderboard? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2033.
- How is In what year will AI achieve a score of 85% or higher on the SimpleBench leaderboard? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: SimpleBench is a 200‑item multiple‑choice test designed to probe everyday human reasoning that still eludes frontier LLMs, including spatio‑temporal reasoning, social intelligence and linguistic “trick” questions.