Will an LLM score >=95% on SimpleBench before 2028?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will an LLM score >=95% on SimpleBench before 2028??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 81.5% as of November 3, 2026.

When does Will an LLM score >=95% on SimpleBench before 2028? resolve?

Will an LLM score >=95% on SimpleBench before 2028? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.

How is Will an LLM score >=95% on SimpleBench before 2028? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market will be resolved as YES if the AVG@5 score of any LLM on this leaderboard will be 95.0% or higher before Jan 1, 2028.

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KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Gemini+4.1pt52.3%
• Claude-11.4pt29.3%
• ChatGPT-1.4pt5.5%

+5 more outcomes

Total Vol

$16.8M

24h Vol

$395K

POLYMARKET

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

• SpaceX+6.5pt65%
• Anthropic-13.9pt29%
• ByteDance0%

+9 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T-6.0pt25.3%
• $1.5–$1.75T+4.8pt24.2%
• $2.0–$2.25T-3.4pt17.2%

+7 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

• Google+4.0pt60%
• Anthropic-8.0pt32.6%
• OpenAI+0.1pt5.3%

+12 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

• ↑$1.5T+3.4pt94%
• ↑$1.75T-1.5pt81%
• ↑$2.0T-2.0pt64%

+11 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by which date?

• December 31,-0.7pt92%
• December 15,-1.0pt91%
• November 30,+2.5pt85%

+15 more outcomes

• OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
• Grok App Downloads in October 2026
• How much will Anthropic raise in its IPO?
• When will Gemini Carbon be released?
• Best AI this month
• Best AI this week
• Gemini Carbon released on?
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
• ChatGPT App Downloads in October
• Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Nov 2, 2026
• Gemini Carbon released by which date?