In 2035, will there be a scientific consensus that at least 1000 Americans died as a direct result of the Covid vaccine?
Health & MedicineOne-Off8yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 59%
Forecasters
40
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleSep 16, 23, 4:24 AM UTCJan 2, 35, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Includes all lethal health effects caused by any Covid vaccine.
- Includes all doses of the vaccine, including any given in the future.
- If there is no clear consensus in 2035, this resolves N/A.
Open markets
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- No-0.1pt97%
- Yes+0.1pt3%
- Total Vol
- $18.1M
- 24h Vol
- $22.1K
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- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
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- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 more outcomes
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- December 31,+6.0pt65%
- September+2.0pt41%
- June28%
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.5pt94%
- Yes-0.5pt6%
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.8K
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 4000-1.0pt96%
- Above 6000+1.0pt60%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1M
- 24h Vol
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for In 2035, will there be a scientific consensus that at least 1000 Americans died as a direct result of the Covid vaccine??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 59% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does In 2035, will there be a scientific consensus that at least 1000 Americans died as a direct result of the Covid vaccine? resolve?
- In 2035, will there be a scientific consensus that at least 1000 Americans died as a direct result of the Covid vaccine? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2035.
- How is In 2035, will there be a scientific consensus that at least 1000 Americans died as a direct result of the Covid vaccine? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Includes all lethal health effects caused by any Covid vaccine.