Current community forecast
No 74.5%
Forecasters
147
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleFeb 20, 23, 10:35 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will AI technology lead to higher or lower US inflation rates by end of June 2027
Manifold MarketsWhich companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
PolymarketWill Google still be a big tech giant by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsBig Tech capital expenditures will exceed $500 billion in 2026
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRules
That is, will Google, Facebook, Apple, etc be ahead of OpenAI, Anthropic, etc, in artificial intelligence?
- I will grade this as true if it seems obvious that they are ahead in most fields of AI.
- This will be based on technology; not commercialization; if OpenAI has an advanced AI sitting in a lab, but Google has a slightly weaker one that has made $10 billion, OpenAI will still win.
- Anything developed in-house at DeepMind will be considered to come from an AI-specific company; anything developed at the rest of Google will be Big Tech.
- If the distinction has blurred by 2028, I might resolve this as N/A if that becomes the deciding factor.
- If a Chinese or other foreign company is in the lead, I will resolve this based on whether they are the Chinese equivalent of Big Tech or a new AI specific company.
Open markets
AIKALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 6.1%+67.0pt99%
- Above 5.6%+8.0pt99%
- Above 2.7%99%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $307.8K
- 24h Vol
- $110.4K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+2.0pt69.5%
- ChatGPT-0.7pt13.3%
- Gemini+1.2pt10.5%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $11.6M
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-5.0pt72%
- December 15,+2.5pt65%
- November 30,-5.5pt45%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.65%+4.0pt99%
- Above 2.05%99%
- Above 2.25%99%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $316.6K
- 24h Vol
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 24.3%+7.0pt99%
- Above 24.7%+10.0pt99%
- Above 24%+6.0pt99%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- $2.0–$2.25T+0.3pt25%
- $2.25–$2.5T-5.0pt19.8%
- $1.75–$2.0T-3.0pt16.7%
+7 more outcomes
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Next Claude Opus released on?
- Best AI this week
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 75% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology? resolve?
- In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2028.
- How is In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: That is, will Google, Facebook, Apple, etc be ahead of OpenAI, Anthropic, etc, in artificial intelligence?