Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 95.6%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJan 2, 26, 7:36 AM UTCJan 2, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Situational Awareness raises new capital by which date?
PolymarketWill "Church Planting: When Venture Capital Finds Jesus" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill Situational Awareness LP raise fresh capital after its July 2026 unwind?
Manifold MarketsWill Demis Hassabis's net worth exceed $3 billion USD by December 31, 2027?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
PolymarketElon Musk # of tweets in September 2026?
PolymarketRules
This is a prediction from https://www.understandingai.org/p/17-predictions-for-ai-in-2026
- It will resolve according to the judgement of the authors.
- If they don't publish a retrospective by the end of February, it will resolve according to my judgement.
Open markets
Tech
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $75,000 or above99%
- $75,250 or above99%
- $69,500 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $844.6K
- 24h Vol
- $817.6K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 1 - September 8, 2026?
- 200-219+45.0pt95%
- 220-239-11.3pt5%
- 40-590%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
- $68,500 or above97%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+5.0pt27.4%
- 200-219+5.0pt22.6%
- 160-179-4.0pt20.6%
+23 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+4.0pt88.1%
- OpenAI-1.7pt9.9%
- Google-0.2pt2%
+18 more outcomes
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+7.5pt55.9%
- 65-89+13.0pt33.3%
- 90-114+1.9pt5.9%
+7 more outcomes
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Where will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- Next James Bond actor?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- SpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- Elon Musk # of tweets in September 2026?
- Highest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Big Tech capital expenditures will exceed $500 billion in 2026?
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 96% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Big Tech capital expenditures will exceed $500 billion in 2026 resolve?
- Big Tech capital expenditures will exceed $500 billion in 2026 is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2027.
- How is Big Tech capital expenditures will exceed $500 billion in 2026 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This is a prediction from https://www.understandingai.org/p/17-predictions-for-ai-in-2026