If we survive general artificial intelligence, what will be the reason?
AIManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastThere was an alignment breakthrough allowing humanity to successfully build an aligned AI. 30.6%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
229
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleFeb 22, 23, 7:11 PM UTCJan 1, 00, 8:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
This market resolves once either of the following are true:
- AI seems about as intelligent as it's ever plausibly going to get.
- There appears to be no more significant danger from AI.
- It resolves to the option that seems closest to the explanation of why we didn't all die.
- If multiple reasons seem like they all significantly contributed, I may resolve to a mix among them.
- If you want to know what option a specific scenario would fall under, describe it to me and we'll figure out what it seems closest to.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.0pt56.5%
- 2027+3.5pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Total Vol
- $261.2K
- 24h Vol
- $186.6K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $401K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.4pt62.4%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt23.8%
- Grok-2.6pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-8.0pt63%
- 1490+-8.5pt54%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for If we survive general artificial intelligence, what will be the reason??
- Manifold Markets prices There was an alignment breakthrough allowing humanity to successfully build an aligned AI. at 31% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does If we survive general artificial intelligence, what will be the reason? resolve?
- If we survive general artificial intelligence, what will be the reason? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2200.
- How is If we survive general artificial intelligence, what will be the reason? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves once either of the following are true: