Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 68.2%
Forecasters
118
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleDec 16, 23, 8:03 PM UTCJan 2, 35, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2035?
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Manifold MarketsIn what year will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem?
Manifold MarketsUN agency for artificial intelligence created in 2026?
FutuurTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRules
AGI aims to replicate the full spectrum of human cognitive abilities, including perception, reasoning, problem-solving, creativity, and social intelligence, across a wide range of domains.
- The goal is to create machines that can learn from experience, generalize knowledge across different tasks, and adapt to new situations without requiring reprogramming.
Open markets
AI
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.0pt56.5%
- 2027+3.5pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Total Vol
- $261.2K
- 24h Vol
- $186.6K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $401K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.4pt62.4%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt23.8%
- Grok-2.6pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-8.0pt63%
- 1490+-8.5pt54%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will General Artificial Intelligence happen before 2035??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 68% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will General Artificial Intelligence happen before 2035? resolve?
- Will General Artificial Intelligence happen before 2035? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2035.
- How is Will General Artificial Intelligence happen before 2035? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: AGI aims to replicate the full spectrum of human cognitive abilities, including perception, reasoning, problem-solving, creativity, and social intelligence, across a wide range of domains.