If SB 1047 is not passed and an AI tool causes $500mn of damages, will the respective AI lab pay over 10% in damages?

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Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for If SB 1047 is not passed and an AI tool causes $500mn of damages, will the respective AI lab pay over 10% in damages??

Manifold Markets prices No at 52.4% as of October 29, 2026.

When does If SB 1047 is not passed and an AI tool causes $500mn of damages, will the respective AI lab pay over 10% in damages? resolve?

If SB 1047 is not passed and an AI tool causes $500mn of damages, will the respective AI lab pay over 10% in damages? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.

How is If SB 1047 is not passed and an AI tool causes $500mn of damages, will the respective AI lab pay over 10% in damages? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Includes settlements

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POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

• Google+0.6pt99%
• Anthropic-0.8pt1%
• Alibaba0%

+18 more outcomes

Total Vol

$4.1M

24h Vol

$233.3K

POLYMARKET

Anthropic announces bankruptcy by which date?

• 2029+2.0pt24%
• 2028-1.0pt17%
• 2027+0.5pt9%

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Gemini+9.6pt55%
• Claude-10.5pt35.1%
• ChatGPT+0.6pt

POLYMARKET

OpenAI announces bankruptcy by which date?

• 2029+1.5pt22%
• 2028+5.0pt18%
• 2027+2.5pt9%

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T+1.0pt29.8%
• $1.5–$1.75T+4.2pt21.1%
• $2.0–$2.25T-2.0pt20.2%

+7 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

• Google+6.5pt57.1%
• Anthropic-7.5pt34.7%
• OpenAI-0.3pt6.1%

+12 more outcomes

• Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
• Anthropic IPO by which date?
• OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
• Google market share this week
• OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
• Gemini Carbon: HLE-Diamond Debut?
• Gemini Carbon released by which date?
• Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
• GPT Astra 6.1+ released by which date?