Who will be portrayed in the first Oscar-winning movie about real-life AI released before 2034?
AIOne-OffEntertainment7y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Sam Altman 80%Leader of 17 outcomes
Forecasters
15
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleOct 5, 24, 4:15 AM UTCJan 2, 34, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market resolves based on the characters in the first movie to win an Oscar which depicts real-life settings and events of modern AI development.
- For each real-world person under this question, resolve YES if they, as a character (not necessarily a cameo), say more than one word during the movie, are audibly mentioned, or are visually depicted for more than 20 seconds in total.
- If no qualifying movie about AI has won an Oscar before 2033, all answers resolve NO.
- If an actor in the movie is not playing themselves, resolves YES for the character they depict rather than the actor.
- A significant portion of the movie (>30% of runtime) must be set in the 2020s decade.
- A qualifying movie does not need to be an entirely faithful depiction of historical events as long as the backdrop, setting, and characters are largely drawn from true history.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will be portrayed in the first Oscar-winning movie about real-life AI released before 2034??
- Manifold Markets prices Sam Altman at 80% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Who will be portrayed in the first Oscar-winning movie about real-life AI released before 2034? resolve?
- Who will be portrayed in the first Oscar-winning movie about real-life AI released before 2034? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2034.
- How is Who will be portrayed in the first Oscar-winning movie about real-life AI released before 2034? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves based on the characters in the first movie to win an Oscar which depicts real-life settings and events of modern AI development.