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  1. Prediction Markets
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  3. Who will be portrayed in the first Oscar-winning movie about real-life AI released before 2034?
Who will be portrayed in the first Oscar-winning movie about real-life AI released before 2034?

Who will be portrayed in the first Oscar-winning movie about real-life AI released before 2034?

AIOne-OffEntertainmentMusic7y
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Sam Altman
Sam Altman 80%
Leader of 16 outcomes
Forecasters

15

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 5 days ago

Stale
Oct 5, 24, 4:15 AMJan 2, 34, 7:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Sam Altman80%

Rules

This market resolves based on the characters in the first movie to win an Oscar which depicts real-life settings and events of modern AI development.

Manifold Markets
  • For each real-world person under this question, resolve YES if they, as a character (not necessarily a cameo), say more than one word during the movie, are audibly mentioned, or are visually depicted for more than 20 seconds in total.
  • If no qualifying movie about AI has won an Oscar before 2033, all answers resolve NO.
  • If an actor in the movie is not playing themselves, resolves YES for the character they depict rather than the actor.
  • A significant portion of the movie (>30% of runtime) must be set in the 2020s decade.
  • A qualifying movie does not need to be an entirely faithful depiction of historical events as long as the backdrop, setting, and characters are largely drawn from true history.

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Rules

This market resolves based on the characters in the first movie to win an Oscar which depicts real-life settings and events of modern AI development.

Manifold Markets
  • For each real-world person under this question, resolve YES if they, as a character (not necessarily a cameo), say more than one word during the movie, are audibly mentioned, or are visually depicted for more than 20 seconds in total.
  • If no qualifying movie about AI has won an Oscar before 2033, all answers resolve NO.
  • If an actor in the movie is not playing themselves, resolves YES for the character they depict rather than the actor.
  • A significant portion of the movie (>30% of runtime) must be set in the 2020s decade.
  • A qualifying movie does not need to be an entirely faithful depiction of historical events as long as the backdrop, setting, and characters are largely drawn from true history.