Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 22, 2026, 2:00 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast12 17.5%+3.7ptLeader of 30 outcomes
Forecasters
10
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+14.9 pts
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleOct 5, 26, 6:05 PM UTCNov 2, 26, 6:04 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.