Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast2 88%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
26
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleApr 3, 26, 2:11 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How many problems written by me will be on the 2027 OTIS Mock AIME
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KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
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KalshiRules
https://artofproblemsolving.com/community/c5h3808234_mock_jmo
- Resolves to the number of distinct problems of the "JMO mock" (which was an april fools joke btw) above that will have at least one 7 point solution submitted to me by December 31st, 2026.
- Any submission is acceptable, including submissions that were not done in time conditions or by someone who would normally be ineligible for any olympiad (eg, someone who is >18 years old).
- Groupsolving is also permitted.
- However, me submitting a solution to my own problem does not count.
- I think MOHS predictions are around 30 45 50 or so, but may be wrong.
Open markets
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.0pt94%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+15.3pt47%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $256.6K
- 24h Vol
- $140.5K
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 2028-1.0pt12%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.3M
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2032+44.0pt92%
- Before 2028+44.0pt59%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 more outcomes
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for How many problems of my JMO mock will be solved by EOY 2026?
- Manifold Markets prices 2 at 88% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does How many problems of my JMO mock will be solved by EOY 2026 resolve?
- How many problems of my JMO mock will be solved by EOY 2026 is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is How many problems of my JMO mock will be solved by EOY 2026 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: https://artofproblemsolving.com/community/c5h3808234_mock_jmo