Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast7 10.1%Leader of 16 outcomes
Forecasters
9
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+5.0 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleMar 23, 26, 6:33 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How many FrontierMath Open Problems solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsHow many problems of my JMO mock will be solved by EOY 2026
Manifold MarketsWill at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolves to the number of problems displayed as solved at https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/open-problems
- I will not trade in this market.
- See also this market for EOY2026: https://manifold.markets/bh/how-many-frontiermath-open-problems?r=Ymg
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.0pt56.5%
- 2027+3.5pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Total Vol
- $261.2K
- 24h Vol
- $186.6K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $401K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.4pt62.4%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt23.8%
- Grok-2.6pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-8.0pt63%
- 1490+-8.5pt54%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for How many FrontierMath Open Problems solved by EOY2027??
- Manifold Markets prices 7 at 10% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does How many FrontierMath Open Problems solved by EOY2027? resolve?
- How many FrontierMath Open Problems solved by EOY2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is How many FrontierMath Open Problems solved by EOY2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves to the number of problems displayed as solved at https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/open-problems