Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastBefore 2027-02-16 94.5%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
11
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+44.5 pts
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleOct 28, 26, 3:52 PM UTCFeb 16, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
GPT 7 (OpenAI) release date
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI release a social network in 2026?
PolymarketWill OpenAI release a competitor to GitHub in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI release a model called GPT-5o in 2026?
Manifold MarketsBefore 2027, will OpenAI release a frontier model with a 5:1 or better abstention to hallucination ratio on SimpleQA?
Manifold MarketsWhen will OpenAI release GPT-7?
KalshiRules
The '+' means any version at or above 6.2 counts: if OpenAI skips 6.2 and releases GPT 6.3 or GPT 7, that still counts for the purpose of this market.
- Minor changes to the name, or other names for a model generally expected to be called GPT 6.2, will also count.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.