EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?
AI4y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 17, 2026, 8:50 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecastNotably easier than in 2024 22.8%+0.1%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
48
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 days ago
StaleJan 22, 25, 7:13 PMJan 1, 31, 7:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Notably easier than in 202423%
Volume trend
$2.0kJul 162d of dataJul 17
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As of 2024, California, along with 13 other states and D.C., has enacted "shield laws" protecting access to gender-affirming care (GAC) for minors.
- These laws protect patients, guardians, and medical professionals from prosecution and ensure continued access to treatments like puberty blockers and hormone replacement therapy (HRT).
- Conversely, 26 states have enacted restrictions or bans on GAC for minors.
- Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve based on a comparative analysis of the accessibility of gender-affirming care for minors in California at the end of 2030 versus 2024.
- Key factors that will be considered: