EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?
AI4y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
About the same as in 2024 45.9%Leader of 4 outcomes
About the same as in 2024 45.9%Forecasters
50
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleJan 22, 25, 7:13 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
As of 2024, California, along with 13 other states and D.C., has enacted "shield laws" protecting access to gender-affirming care (GAC) for minors.
- These laws protect patients, guardians, and medical professionals from prosecution and ensure continued access to treatments like puberty blockers and hormone replacement therapy (HRT).
- Conversely, 26 states have enacted restrictions or bans on GAC for minors.
- Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve based on a comparative analysis of the accessibility of gender-affirming care for minors in California at the end of 2030 versus 2024.
- Key factors that will be considered: