Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (99%)
Resolved: Aug 18, 2026, 11:51 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecastNo 99%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated yesterday
StaleMar 18, 26, 4:58 AMAug 18, 26, 11:51 PM
Probability Timeline
Yes1%
No99%
99%
1%
Rules
Resolves YES if Elijah manley wins floridas 20th democratic house primary.
- He is challenging an incumbent,
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Florida#District_14
