Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 76%
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8
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binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
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Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJul 2, 23, 10:52 PM UTCJan 2, 40, 4:59 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
-"Does": the main cause must have been the AI, not external circumstance.
- -"an": the deaths must be from the same source, such as a glitch, misfire or AI attack (we won't combine unrelated disasters).
- We'll include cumulative deaths over time (such as the same glitch killing people over several months), as long as it's credible that the deaths were caused by the same AI problem.
- -"AI": must be a system (or multiple systems) that relied on artificial intelligence for its decisions.
- -"disaster": the AI must've done something that most smart people would say is malicious, reckless, or poor judgement.
- Unless the AI was correctly following orders by a human who we agree was authorized to give those orders, then that doesn't count.