Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 71.8%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJan 1, 26, 3:31 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 3:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Chicago tax revenue declines three years in a row due to flight from the city.
Manifold MarketsCanada's population Up or Down this year?
PolymarketBefore which quarters will Canada's population exceed 42 million?
Manifold MarketsWill the foreign population of Japan exceed 5 million people by the 2025 census?
Manifold MarketsVisitors to Florida in 2026
KalshiHow high will the Nikkei 225 get in 2026?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- Statistics Canada officially projects 0.3% population growth in 2025, to be followed by negative 0.2% in 2026.
- The market resolves YES if Canada's total population on December 31, 2026 is lower than on January 1, 2026.
- Resolution will be determined by official Statistics Canada population estimates, available at Statistics Canada's population estimates page.
- Jan 1 2026: 41,548,511
- The government's 2025–2027 immigration plan proposes a substantial reduction of admissions of new permanent residents and a decrease in the number of non-permanent residents living in the country, with the goal of pausing population growth in the short term.
Open markets
Macro & EconomyKALSHIVisitors to Florida in 2026
- Above 136 million97%
- Above 138 million-2.0pt94%
- Above 140 million+3.0pt80%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $151.7K
- 24h Vol
- $59.4K
KALSHIWill GameStop acquire eBay in 2026?
- No92%
- Yes8%
- Total Vol
- $3.1M
- 24h Vol
- $20.8K
KALSHIHow high will the Nikkei 225 get in 2026?
- At least ¥73,000-35.0pt30%
- At least ¥74,000-40.0pt27%
- At least ¥80,00024%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $19.6K
KALSHIPort of New York and New Jersey container volume in 2026
- Above 8.4 million TEUs95%
- Above 8.6 million TEUs+4.0pt85%
- Above 8.7 million TEUs+3.0pt73%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $66.1K
KALSHICzech National Bank rate decision in September
- Maintain current rate+5.0pt92.4%
- Hike 25bps-6.0pt1.9%
- Cut 50bps1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $51.2K
KALSHIWill the S&P finish positive this year?
- Yes88%
- No12%
- Total Vol
- $1M
- 24h Vol
- $10K
- How high will US gas prices get in 2026?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Canada's population declines in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 72% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Canada's population declines in 2026? resolve?
- Canada's population declines in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Canada's population declines in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria