Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 5:50 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 56.5%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJan 1, 26, 3:31 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 3:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Resolution criteria
- Statistics Canada officially projects 0.3% population growth in 2025, to be followed by negative 0.2% in 2026.
- The market resolves YES if Canada's total population on December 31, 2026 is lower than on January 1, 2026.
- Resolution will be determined by official Statistics Canada population estimates, available at Statistics Canada's population estimates page.
- Jan 1 2026: 41,548,511
- The government's 2025–2027 immigration plan proposes a substantial reduction of admissions of new permanent residents and a decrease in the number of non-permanent residents living in the country, with the goal of pausing population growth in the short term.