PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Down 87.1%+1.0pt
Market quality
32 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$304.9
Low liquidityBid / Ask
6.0% / 19.0%
Spread
13.0 pt
Wide spreadComments
2
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Jan 27, 26, 10:29 PM UTCApr 30, 27, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Canada's population declines in 2026?
Manifold MarketsBefore which quarters will Canada's population exceed 42 million?
Manifold MarketsWill Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?
PolymarketWill West Virginia's population grow in 2026?
KalshiWill there be a signifikant growth of greenlands population after Trump offers money to each inhabitant?
Manifold MarketsWill California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
KalshiRules
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
- This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
- If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
- If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
- The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
- Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market.
Open markets
Society & CultureKALSHIMaine lobster landings in 2026
- Above 55 million pounds94%
- Above 70 million pounds65%
- Above 75 million pounds44%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $7.9K
- 24h Vol
- $7.2K
KALSHIWill California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
- Yes60%
- No40%
- Total Vol
- $12.2K
- 24h Vol
- $1.8K
KALSHIWho will be in the US News top 20 universities?
- Vanderbilt87%
- Rice84%
- UCLA79%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $17.3K
- 24h Vol
- $298
FORECASTEXWill UCLA out-of-state tuition exceed $55,000 in 2026?
- No77%
- Yes23%
- Total Vol
- $219
- 24h Vol
- $219
KALSHIUS test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Significant decrease+4.0pt60.4%
- No significant difference-11.0pt28.7%
- Significant increase+6.2pt10.9%
- Total Vol
- $58.8K
KALSHIWill West Virginia's population grow in 2026?
- No77%
- Yes23%
- Total Vol
- $1.8K
- 24h Vol
- $200
- Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- Harry Kane Knighted in 2026
- New River Gorge recreation visits in 2026
- Will Glacier National Park set a visitation record in 2026?
- Which colleges will see their ranking drop this year?
- Will UC reinstate its SAT/ACT requirement before 2028?
- Hawaii total visitor arrivals in 2026
- Will UCLA out-of-state tuition exceed $53,000 in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Bozeman-area housing units authorized in 2026
- US test scores in Math in 2026?
- Major news story in Sep 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Canada's population Up or Down this year??
- Polymarket prices Down at 87% as of September 15, 2026.
- When does Canada's population Up or Down this year? resolve?
- Canada's population Up or Down this year? is scheduled to resolve on April 30, 2027.
- How is Canada's population Up or Down this year? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.