Current community forecast
2035-12-31 53.1%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
9
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+1.4 pts
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleAug 26, 26, 1:01 AM UTCDec 31, 35, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will the Long March 10 rocket first reach orbit?
Manifold MarketsBy when will an amateur liquid rocket break the Karman Line?
Manifold MarketsWill there be 100 GW of solar power on the Moon before there is 100 GW of solar power in orbit?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Rocket Lab Corporation launch Neutron
KalshiWhat will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit in September 2026?
PolymarketAnother Blue Origin rocket explodes by Oct 31?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-1.8pt9%
- Google2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.9K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Total Vol
- $53.1K
- 24h Vol
- $53.1K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-16.0pt19%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt67%
- June 30, 2027-0.5pt53%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for By when will an amateur rocket reach orbit??
- Manifold Markets prices 2035-12-31 at 53% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does By when will an amateur rocket reach orbit? resolve?
- By when will an amateur rocket reach orbit? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2035.