Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 11, 2026, 3:41 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current community forecast2026 79.3%+23.3ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
7
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 days ago
StaleFeb 24, 24, 2:05 PMDec 31, 28, 3:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
-20251%
Volume trend
$625Jul 102d of dataJul 11
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The Long March 10 is an evolution of the Long March 5 and is primarily intended to enable China's crewed lunar landings
- Update 2025-08-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Long March 10A counts: The market includes the Long March 10A variant.
- If the 10A is the first to reach orbit, resolution will use that date.