Will the US or China impose a ban on releasing open weight AIs above a certain threshold before 2030
ChinaCustom3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 23, 2026, 10:10 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current community forecastYes 61.1%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 days ago
StaleJul 13, 26, 10:49 PMDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes61%
Volume trend
$100Jul 138d of dataJul 23
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