Will the US ban open-weight AI models, and what happens to OpenAI + Anthropic's valuation if it does?
Corporate ActionsAIOne-OffRegulationBusiness & Corporate3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastIF ban enacted by end of 2028: OpenAI + Anthropic ≥ $4T combined on Jan 1, 2029 (N/A if no ban) 60%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
2
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 58 minutes ago
LaggingSep 13, 26, 11:16 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
roon (OpenAI), Sep 12 2026: "i won't lie to you, i think open source will be banned before too long after some major disaster. and when the day comes, you'll agree with me. i hope kimi and deepseek etc keep making models but keep them monitored on an api where they should be."
- A reply argued the ban is what closed labs need: they're unprofitable, need to IPO, and need the government to hand them a monopoly via regulation.
- This market tests both claims.
- Answers are independent and resolve separately.
- Answer 1: the named outcome
- Resolves YES if, on or before Dec 31, 2029, the US federal government enacts a statute, executive order, or final agency rule that prohibits the public release of model weights for general-purpose AI models, either outright or above a capability/compute threshold.
