China vs US: who will be first to impose a ban on releasing open weight AIs above a certain threshold?
ChinaCustom4yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 22, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current community forecastChina 63.9%
Forecasters
8
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 days ago
StaleJul 12, 26, 8:53 PMDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
China64%
Volume trend
$50Jul 126d of dataJul 22
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N/A if neither happens before 2030
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/Bayesian/will-the-us-or-china-impose-a-ban-o)