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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. China
  3. When will the Long March 10 rocket first reach orbit? (Quarters)
Manifold Markets

When will the Long March 10 rocket first reach orbit? (Quarters)

ChinaCustom3y
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
2026 Q1 1.1%
Leader of 9 outcomes
Forecasters

5

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 2 days ago

Stale
Aug 19, 25, 11:57 AMDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

2026 Q11%

Rules

The Long March 10 is an evolution of the Long March 5 and is primarily intended to enable China's crewed lunar landings.

Manifold Markets
  • This question includes the Long March 10A.
  • Update 2026-01-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Whether Long March 10B will be included in this market depends on whether it is genuinely the same rocket with a different engine and fuel package, or a new rocket with the same name.
  • The creator will make this determination when more information becomes available.
  • Update 2026-02-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market now includes the Long March 10B variant.

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Rules

The Long March 10 is an evolution of the Long March 5 and is primarily intended to enable China's crewed lunar landings.

Manifold Markets
  • This question includes the Long March 10A.
  • Update 2026-01-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Whether Long March 10B will be included in this market depends on whether it is genuinely the same rocket with a different engine and fuel package, or a new rocket with the same name.
  • The creator will make this determination when more information becomes available.
  • Update 2026-02-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market now includes the Long March 10B variant.