By 2035, will the FDA approve a drug that slows the yearly progression of Alzheimer's disease by at least 50%?
Health & MedicineOne-Off8y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 57.1%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleJan 14, 25, 10:58 AM UTCJan 1, 35, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market will be resolved based on two main criteria by January 1, 2035:
- FDA Approval: A new drug must receive official approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) specifically for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease.
- Approval means the FDA has evaluated the drug's safety and efficacy through the required clinical trial phases.
- Effectiveness: The approved drug must demonstrate the ability to slow the yearly progression of Alzheimer's disease by at least 50% compared to the standard of care.
- This reduction will be measured using standardized clinical assessments, such as cognitive function tests and daily living activity evaluations, compared to the progression rates observed with existing treatments.
- The question resolves as yes even if the effect is limited to patients with early AD.
