By 2030 will regulations or laws make it prohibitively difficult to develop AI models in the United States?
One-OffAIRegulation3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 79.9%
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10
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 26 minutes ago
Jul 25, 24, 3:39 AM UTCFeb 1, 30, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves yes if on Jan 1st 2030 AI companies have stopped developing frontier AI models in the United States because US regulations or laws have made it prohibitively expensive, difficult, or impossible.
- Also resolves yes if nobody is developing frontier models anywhere.
- Additionally, resolves yes if model development stops because courts rule that AI training violates current copyright laws.
- Resolves no if AI companies stop developing frontier models in the US for some other reason, such as if the United States government is destroyed or they relocate to other countries because they have superior research talent.
- Some examples include a law requiring companies to get permission to train on copyrighted works or restrictive caps on the number of training FLOPs
