By 2028, will there be a public instance of an AI cybersecurity system autonomously replicating itself?
AIOne-Off1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 64.1%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleJun 29, 23, 5:55 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 6:29 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketTencent market share this week
KalshiRules
Yes: There is at least one publicly reported instance.
- No: There are no publicly reported instances.
Open markets
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt68.3%
- ChatGPT+0.4pt13.5%
- Gemini+1.6pt10.6%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $11.5M
- 24h Vol
- $100.2K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-11.0pt69%
- December 15,-13.5pt65%
- November 30,-11.0pt50%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 5.6%+18.0pt99%
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 4.5%99%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $262.3K
- 24h Vol
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 24.3%+13.0pt99%
- Above 24.7%+30.0pt99%
- Above 23.6%+1.0pt99%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- $2.0–$2.25T+0.1pt25.3%
- $2.25–$2.5T-5.0pt20%
- $1.75–$2.0T-3.0pt16.8%
+7 more outcomes
- Anthropic market share this week
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Best AI this week
- Anthropic lab leak by which date?
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
- When will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for By 2028, will there be a public instance of an AI cybersecurity system autonomously replicating itself??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 64% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does By 2028, will there be a public instance of an AI cybersecurity system autonomously replicating itself? resolve?
- By 2028, will there be a public instance of an AI cybersecurity system autonomously replicating itself? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is By 2028, will there be a public instance of an AI cybersecurity system autonomously replicating itself? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Yes: There is at least one publicly reported instance.