Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast[2.0, 2.25)% 34.8%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
1
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleApr 19, 26, 1:31 PM UTCSep 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
What will be the average ECB deposit rate in the 3rd quarter of 2026? Intervals are left-inclusive.
- Intervals are pre-selected based on markets that at the time of creation predict a tendency to rise rates rather than lower them.
- Specifically refers to the deposit rate with this as the primary source: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
- Resolution: If the rate changes within the quarter I will calculate the average rate by number of days from the official data.
Open markets
Inflation
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $105.9M
- 24h Vol
- $1.9M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $662.8K
- 24h Vol
- $55.1K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $417.9K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+3.0pt54.5%
- September Meeting+2.0pt45.5%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,900+1.0pt82%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $92.7K
- 24h Vol
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+5.0pt86%
- Above 0.2%36%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $21.3K
- 24h Vol
- $8.5K
- CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- CPI in September
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- CPI-U index in August
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Core CPI YoY - August 2026
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- August 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Average ECB Rate in 2026Q3??
- Manifold Markets prices [2.0, 2.25)% at 35% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Average ECB Rate in 2026Q3? resolve?
- Average ECB Rate in 2026Q3? is scheduled to resolve on September 30, 2026.
- How is Average ECB Rate in 2026Q3? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: What will be the average ECB deposit rate in the 3rd quarter of 2026? Intervals are left-inclusive.