Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 56%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 22 hours ago
StaleJun 8, 26, 7:33 AM UTCNov 8, 27, 8:33 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Before 2030, will > 75% of Americans be more concerned than excited about AI?
Manifold MarketsWill "How My Students Think About AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill an 11th state in the USA enact bottle deposit laws by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the SCOTUS hear a case about AI and copyright law before 2027?
KalshiWhich state laws will be enacted in 2026?
KalshiU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Total Vol
- $280.7K
- 24h Vol
- $148.9K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $406.5K
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Most popular AI this week
- DeepSeek market share this week
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Are we going to create safety laws about AI??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 56% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Are we going to create safety laws about AI? resolve?
- Are we going to create safety laws about AI? is scheduled to resolve on November 8, 2027.