Current community forecast
No 80%
Forecasters
25
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleDec 28, 25, 11:21 AM UTCDec 29, 26, 11:20 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]
Manifold MarketsSOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).
Manifold Markets3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRules
All these predictions are taken from Forbes/Rob Toews' "10 AI Predictions For 2026".
- For the 2025 predictions you can find them here, and their resolution here.
- You can find all the markets under the tag [2026 Forbes AI predictions].
- Note that I will resolve to whatever Forbes/Rob Toews say in their resolution article for 2026's predictions, even if I or others disagree with his decision.
- I might bet in this market, as I have no power over the resolution.
- Description of this prediction from the article:
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for 2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 80% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does 2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!] resolve?
- 2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!] is scheduled to resolve on December 29, 2026.
- How is 2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!] settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: All these predictions are taken from Forbes/Rob Toews' "10 AI Predictions For 2026".