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Data as of Sep 19, 2026, 11:21 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
MiniMax 1%Leader of 10 outcomes
Market quality
34 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$8.4K
Medium liquiditySpread
89.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Sep 18, 26, 4:00 PM UTCSep 25, 26, 2:00 PM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of October?
PolymarketWhich company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of September?
PolymarketWhich company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of November?
PolymarketWill real-time text-to-video generation be viable by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill real-time text-to-video generation be viable by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill photo/video "AI detection" meaningfully exist in December 2028?
Manifold MarketsRules
If Google is the #1 model on Artificial Analysis Text to Video Leaderboard (With Audio) on Sep 25, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Artificial Analysis - Video Arena
- Tied rankings shall be resolved using the publisher's official tie-breaking methodology; if none exists, all tied entities share the highest rank among them.
- If multiple candidates are tied for a given rank, then their Contracts will resolve to $1/(the number of candidates tied), rounded down.
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- If MiniMax is the #1 model on Artificial Analysis Text to Video Leaderboard (With Audio) on Sep 25, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-8.5pt77%
- December 15,-20.5pt62%
- November 30,-26.5pt51%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $3.5M
- 24h Vol
- $201.8K
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+3.0pt90%
- Before Mar 1, 202786%
- Before Feb 1, 2027+2.0pt86%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt69.6%
- ChatGPT-0.1pt12.8%
- Gemini+2.1pt9.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $11.5M
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 23.6%+8.0pt99%
- Above 21.7%99%
- Above 22.7%99%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $178.6K
- 24h Vol
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 4.5%+3.0pt99%
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 5.6%+44.0pt91%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $197.4K
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.55%+3.0pt99%
- Above 2.05%99%
- Above 2.25%99%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $231.8K
- 24h Vol
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic lab leak by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets)
- Top Text to Speech AI this week
- Top Text to Image AI this week
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
- OpenRouter AI token usage: Sep 14–20
- Anthropic announces bankruptcy by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Top Text to Video AI this week?
- Kalshi prices MiniMax at 1% as of September 19, 2026.
- When does Top Text to Video AI this week resolve?
- Top Text to Video AI this week is scheduled to resolve on September 25, 2026.
- How is Top Text to Video AI this week settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Google is the #1 model on Artificial Analysis Text to Video Leaderboard (With Audio) on Sep 25, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.